Six reasons for the government’s hesitation about IS(IS)

17.09.2014 Vatan
Translated by: Turgay BAYINDIR /
Orjinal Metin (tr-9/15/2014)

Turkey, which has for years appealed to the international community, especially the western allies in NATO, for “coalition against terrorism,” now will not join the anti-IS(IS) coalition formed by the USA right by its borders. What is more, it is understood that directly or indirectly, armed units connected with the PKK will participate in this coalition as well.

Well then, why is Ankara hesitant about joining? We can list six main reasons for this:

1.  The 49 hostages

Of course the foremost reason is the fact that IS(IS) raided the Mosul Consulate General of Turkey and took 49 people hostage. With this move, IS(IS) has largely managed to keep Turkey away from Iraq and even Syria, as well as proving that from a strategic point of view, it is not to be underestimated. Ankara, on the other hand, has not found a solution to the hostage problem other than banning the Turkish media to cover it.  

2.  Spillover of terrorism into Turkey

The details of the Reyhanlı incident, the biggest terrorist attack in the history of the Republic, have yet to be uncovered. Regardless of whether it was carried out by the Assad regime or by any of the radical Islamist groups, this terrorist attack showed that the cost of directly interfering in regional crises is very high. If Turkey openly participates in the coalition against IS(IS), the lives of not only the 49 hostages but all citizens will be jeopardized. This is not too far off because IS(IS) and similar organizations know Turkey quite well as they have been using Turkey as transit for a while and have a settled presence here. Moreover, as foreign media have been exposing on a daily basis, many people are going from Turkey to Iraq and Syria to fight for the Islamic cause.   

3.  Indirect help for Assad regime

Even though the US President Obama announced that they will definitely not cooperate with the Ba’ath regime, the fact that the fight against IS(IS) will be carried into Syria will inevitably strengthen Assad’s position. This, naturally, is extremely frustrating to the AKP government, which has been extremely engaged in toppling the regime in Syria and has already paid large costs (hundreds of thousands of refugees and their problems, the spillover of terrorism into Turkey, etc.).
 
4.  Fading hopes of being a regional power

In fact, it cannot be said that Turkey is happy with the current situation in Iraq and Syria largely thanks to IS(IS). However, in case of the elimination of IS(IS), the new balance of power in the region will definitely be to Ankara’s disadvantage. This, as Soli Özel wrote in Haber Türk yesterday, could mean the end of Turkey’s motivation to be a regional power, which had gained momentum with the “Arab spring” but received a serious blow with the Egyptian coup.

5.  Transformation of PKK into a regional authority

I do not want to go into details since I have already written a lot on this, but it will suffice to say that the prominence of the mostly single-handed fight of YPG, which has a similar line to PKK, in Syria and the fight of HPG in Iraq in cooperation with the peshmarga against IS(IS) is disturbing to Ankara. It will be remembered anyway that the accusations against AKP government that it has been providing support for the radical Islamist groups in Syria have been built upon the premise of Turkey’s aim of preventing PYD, which follows a line similar to that of Abdullah Öcalan, from coming into prominence in Syria. However, it should be remembered that if PYD and its armed units had not taken over this fight despite Ankara’s position, a large portion of Turkey’s Syrian border would now have been under the control of radical groups such as IS(IS) and al-Nusra Front.   

6.  The weakness of the Obama plan

The anti-IS(IS) military action plan announced by Obama contains several weaknesses, and they are criticized rightfully by the representatives of the AKP government. We can easily say that the task might not be accomplished in 3 years as Obama predicts. Even if it is accomplished, it does not mean that it will bring a definite solution to the problem because, unless serious steps are taken to address the issues that create the ground for the emergence of such formations as IS(IS), new formations will soon come into being, and probably stronger and more alarming than before.

Yet, this should not be forgotten: The fact that Ankara does not join a coalition formed by almost all its allies, and aiming to resolve a critical question that concerns it very closely, regardless of how valid its reasons are, will carry a cost of a different kind, and we are already seeing from the beginning the signs that it will take a heavy toll.

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